Prospect Report - Day 8

NUMBER 3: Luke Hochevar - RHP

Luke Hochevar was drafted by the Royals in the first round of the 2006 draft....after he was drafted by the Dodgers in the 2005 draft. Hochevar never signed with LA and was thrown back into the draft pool the following year....lucky for us. Between drafts, Hochevar pitched in the American Association (an independent league) and performed well, prompting the Royals to use the first overall pick on him.

Hochevar has a fastball that's generally in the low 90's, though it does get up around 96 mph on occasion. In addition to a good fastball, Hochevar has three other pitches to go to as well. He has an excellent curve that he throws with great control. He also has a plus change-up and a slider that he turns to from time to time. He has great command of all his pitches and throws them all for strikes.

At this point, he only has a combined 38 innings of pro ball, split between the indy league and Burlington (Low A). In that 38 innings, he's looked phenomenal - striking out 50, walking 13 and giving up only 3 home runs. He was sent to the Arizona Fall League for more work, but was shut down due to shoulder issues (not considered serious).

PROJECTION:

At only 23, he should make his KC debut at some point in 2006. He'll probably start out at AA and work on a few things, then get a call maybe around mid-season. Then again, why rush? The Royals have had a recent history of mishandling pitchers, so let's not blow it with this one, too. However, Hochevar has the talent to become a top of the rotation pitcher...possibly a #1 guy in the rotation. I'm willing to wait another year if that's what Dayton Moore sees fit...but I'd bet we'll see him sooner rather than later.

Prospect Report - Day 7

NUMBER 4: Chris Lubanski - OF

Lubanski was drafted out of high school by the Royals - taken in the first round of the 2003 draft (the 5th overall pick). At 6-3/205 lbs, he's a pretty big, athletic guy - and he's only 21 (turns 22 this March). He's been one of the more highly touted prospects in this organization in recent history. He put up good numbers with last season's stellar Wichita (AA) team - batting .282 with 34 doubles, 11 triples, and 15 homers.

One negative in Lubanski's career has been his tendency to get off to a slow start. On the flip-side, a positive has been his ability to make adjustments throughout the season, as he always hits better as the season progresses. Over the span of his career, he's posted a .978 OPS (on-base percent + slugging percent) after the all-star break....over 200 points higher than before the all-star break.

According to a report from Baseball Prospectus, Lubanski became a better hitter last season, as his walk and strikeout rates both significantly improved. That report claims that Lubanski changed his batting stance, helping him get his bat into the strike zone more quickly. His plate discipline has improved quite a bit, and last season he led the Texas League in walks. Lubanski has great speed and his power should continue to improve.

Something that could use a great deal of improvement is his defense. I haven't read one report on Lubanski that has anything very good to say about his play in the outfield. Everything I've seen and heard indicate that he's bad outfielder - he makes bad reads, runs bad routes and has (at best) an average arm. That being said...the Royals still hope that Lubanski can be their left fielder of the future.

PROJECTION:

Once thought of as a speedster, that strength is now gone from Lubanski's game. He's filled out and lost a little speed, and he's not the best base stealer. He seems to be a solid hitter who keeps getting better (and has room to improve even more).

There seem to be a lot of mixed feelings on Lubanski's future.....worst case scenario - the guy becomes a very solid 4th outfielder who can play either corner and give you solid at bats in a reserve or platoon role. Best case? Well....at best, I'd project him as an average big league left fielder in another year or two. A guy who can hit for a decent average, draw some walks, and hit with some pop (I could see him averaging 35 doubles, 10 triples, and 15 homers).

Prospect Report - Day 6

NUMBER 5: Erik Cordier - RHP

Cordier, who doesn't turn 21 until the end of February, was a second round pick out of Wisconsin in 2004. He's had some injury problems (hopefully not a sign of things to come) - after a knee surgery in 2005, he came back in 2006 and went down again, this time with an elbow injury (eventually leading to Tommy John surgery). Hopefully these injuries were just bad luck, as he has the makings of a solid big league pitcher.

In his limited '06 season, he pitched well, splitting time between the Rookie League and the Burlington Low A club. While pitching for Idaho Falls in Rookie ball, he went 16 innings - giving up only 3 walks and holding opponents to a .186 batting average. He also struck out 19 before moving up to Burlington. After his promotion, he went 37 innings (and lowered his ERA) - giving up 14 walks and striking out 23.

According to Baseball America, Cordier has the best fastball in the system. It consistently hovers around 93-94 mph, and reaches 98 mph at times. Cordier also has a very good changeup, as well as a decent breaking ball (which will hopefully get better with time).

After reading a couple of scouting reports, it seems the problem with his breaking ball is a variation in his release point. While it would be best to throw either a curve or slider - this variation causes his breaking ball to come out as more of a slurve. These reports say that he'll likely lean towards the curve, and if he can't make that work, go to a slider.

PROJECTION:

I think if Cordier can stay healthy, he could come close to matching Luke Hochevar's talent - although he's nowhere near as ready to perform at the Major League level. He's got two plus pitches right now, plus the potential for a third. His fastball can dominate, and probably will at any level, as long as he throws it for strikes. Cordier will miss all of 2007 and should return to action in '08. I'd assume he'll start off '08 in High A, but could quickly move up the ladder if he shows he can stay healthy.

Most likely, the Royals will take their time with Cordier....I could see him coming up to the big leagues at some point in 2009 or 2010.

Prospect Report - Day 5

NUMBER 6: Tyler Lumsden - LHP

One of (if not the first) deals Dayton Moore made was the Mike MacDougal trade, which saw us acquire Lumsden from the White Sox. Moore's made a real effort to stockpile some young arms, and Lumsden is a big part of this movement. A 6-4, 215 lb. lefty, Lumsden is a big guy with (hopefully) a bright future as a starting pitcher.

Lumsden was drafted in the first round by the Sox in 2004 (out of Clemson) and is 23 years old. He looked good in 2006 after missing the '05 season due to an elbow surgery to remove bone chips. He seems to have bounced back with no problems, posting good numbers in AA last season. He went a combined 11-5 between AA Birmingham and Wichita, with a 2.77 ERA and 96 K's in 159 innings.

He's got three good pitches - a low 90's fastball (that can top out around 95-96), a curve and a changeup....he throws all three well and has a good delivery. Lumsden is also pretty athletic, and a good fielder at his position. The downside, according to a couple of reports I've read, is that he has trouble with his mechanics. This leads to him floating the ball up into the strike zone at times, which makes him more hittable. If he can get this kink worked out, he should hold opposing batters to a lower average (they hit .257 against him in '06).

PROJECTION:

Lumsden will likely start this season in Omaha, he may have had a shot at the big leagues with a tremendous Spring Training, but the Royals look to have a crowded rotation now, so he'll likely go to AAA and work on his mechanics. He should be one of the first to be called on in case of injury or a need for pitching help this season. I'd look for Lumsden to get some time in KC this season, and to have a definite shot at the rotation in 2008 and beyond.

Countdown resumes on Monday....

Prospect Report - Day 4

Sorry...this is coming a day late, will also post Day 5 shortly.

Probably a controversial choice, but here it is.......

NUMBER 7: Justin Huber - OF/1B/DH

Huber's been a name associated with this list for a little while now, and he's certainly been surpassed by more recent draft picks/acquisitions, but I've got to believe he's still got the ability to be a solid big league hitter. Huber - who's 25 years old now - is a right-handed batter who's recently been shifted to the outfield (a crowded position within the KC farm system). The acquisition of Ryan Shealy has likely made this transition a permanent one.

Huber has been a very solid hitter during his career, slipping a little in '06....probably somewhat due to the position shift, adjusting defensively, etc. He still hit .278 with an OBP of .358 for AAA Omaha, including 22 doubles and 15 HR in 352 at bats. Not exactly lighting the world on fire, but solid numbers.

He's pretty much been a line drive hitter, able to spray the ball around the field, and should be able to hit 15-20 homers at the ML level. He's not overly athletic, being a former catcher, but not bad...and he's got a strong arm, which is essential to play a good outfield. However, his athleticism is below par for an outfielder, making him raw and below average at that spot. He was a pretty solid defender at 1B, but he won't be playing there any time soon (for this franchise, anyway).

Most people probably wouldn't rank Huber this high on the list (if they ranked him at all), but I'm not ready to forget about him just yet. The main reason I'm ranking him at all is due to his possible trade value, and if the Royals can flip him to another team for a solid prospect at another position, then he's sort of served his purpose at this point of his career. I like the guy, but I think he's just been squeezed out of a job in KC.

PROJECTION:

Due to the presence of Shealy at 1B, plus a surplus of corner outfielders, I don't think Huber will make it through 2007 with this organization. If a deal can be made for him, I think Dayton Moore will pull the trigger and send Huber packing. I could see Huber joining another club as a corner outfielder or first baseman and batting a solid .270 to .290, with 15 homers, 30 doubles, and a decent OBP. He should be a solid player for someone at some point......and hopefully can help the Royals fill a need at another position (via trade).

Prospect Report - Day 3

NUMBER 8: Brent Fisher - LHP

Fisher is a young pitcher (he won't turn 20 until August 2007) with a lot of upside. The 6-2, 190 pound youngster was drafted out of high school in 2005 (round 7) and put up great numbers in Rookie ball last season - pitching 72.1 innings with an ERA of 2.12. Fisher also posted 107 K's vs. only 19 walks, showing very good control.

Fisher has a good fastball, hitting the upper 80's/lower 90's and a curve, both of which he seems to have decent command of. According to scouting reports I've read, he's got good mechanics and a solid frame, so he can hopefully avoid the "fragile pitcher" syndrome. Fisher also has a changeup, but according to what I've read, it isn't much of a weapon at this point....maybe it's something that will develop by the time he hit's the big leagues, as he's likely still at least a three years away.

The room for improvement is very high, as Fisher has yet to play a full season, which he'll do in 2007 (probably with the Low A club). After dominating two years of rookie ball (a combined 176 K's in 122 innings) it'll be interesting to see how he puts it all together in one, longer season. If he dominates at Low A, I don't see any reason the Royals wouldn't go ahead and bump him up to High A this year, with a trip to Wichita possible in 2008. I'm assuming we won't see Fisher in KC until sometime in 2010 (maybe Sept. '09).

PROJECTION:

It's hard to say at this early stage. Fisher definitely appears to have the right stuff....SO FAR. He's got a long way to go and you never can tell with prospects (especially pitchers). Since a true ace is hard to find, I'll guess we're looking at a #3-5 starting pitcher....possibly a reliever. Should be fun to follow this season and beyond - he's definitely one to watch over the next couple of years.

Prospect Report - Day 2

NUMBER 9: Jeff Bianchi - SS/2B

Bianchi is a Right-handed middle infielder, drafted out of high school in the second round of the 2005 draft. He hit over .400 in 2006, but in limited time (12 games!), as he was plagued by injury. This was Bianchi's second injury in as many years (back injury in 2005, shoulder in '06), and he's only had 176 plate appearances in both seasons combined. Not much of a sample size, but the Royals have to like what they've seen in such limited time.

Bianchi looks to be fundamentally solid on the defensive side of the ball...a must at either middle infield position. His approach at the plate also looks good, with a combined batting average of .414 over his two shortened seasons. According to scouting reports, Bianchi has good speed and a nice swing. What all this will translate into on the field is hard to project, and he'll have to play a full season (or at least close to one) to get more of a feel for his skills.

Judging from his stats thus far, it seems that Bianchi can hit...but how well can he sustain that over a full season? Will he be able to make adjustments throughout an entire season? Hopefully 2007 will provide the answers, as he'll likely start off in Low A ball...if he produces (and stays healthy), I don't think it'd be a stretch to see him get promoted to High A, with Wichita on the radar for 2008. KC could be within reach by 2009 if all goes according to plan, with a more probable arrival date of September '09/Spring 2010.

PROJECTION:

I think Bianchi could be a guy who starts in KC at either 2B or SS (probably 2B - see below)....of course, I'd have to see him stay healthy (I'm hoping he's not injury prone) before I give him anything, but I think it's safe to pencil him in. It's hard to project his power and speed in such limited playing time, but I think it's safe to say he'd be an offensively gifted middle infielder with plus speed. We'll also have to wait and see if he's got the patience at the plate to be a top of the order guy - but he seems to have the makings of a leadoff or #2 hitter.

With his recent shoulder issues, his arm strength may be in question, which could see a permanent shift to 2B. If KC can hang on to Mark Grudzielanek for a couple more years, Bianchi could be groomed to take over at 2B at some point in 2009/2010.

Prospect Report

Over the next week or two, I'm going to try to give my thoughts on the top prospects in KC's farm system. We'll take a look at the top 10, starting at the bottom and working up to #1 (not that there's any real surprise who that'll be).

NUMBER 10: Mitch Maier - OF

Maier is a left-handed hitting 24 year old former first round pick (taken in 2003) out of The University of Toledo. He's coming off a good overall season in 2006, though he got off to a rocky start. Maier played for AA Wichita, where he made up for a rocky start by finishing the season on a hot streak. He ended up batting .306 in 138 games for Wichita - including 35 doubles, 7 triples and 14 homers. Maier ended up with an OBP of .357 and SLG of .473, which combined for an OPS of .830.

Past reports on Maier show that he's athletic and has decent speed....he stole 13 bases for Wichita in '06 (although he was also caught stealing 12 times). Defensively, he's improved greatly in the outfield - Maier was initially drafted as a catcher and moved to 3B for settling in the outfield - at the major league level, he most likely projects to play a corner outfield spot (although he plays center as well, the Royals already have David DeJesus in that position).

Judging from stats and reading various scouting reports, Maier looks to be a guy who can hit for average and has power to the gaps, but not much home run pop. He could be a threat as a base runner as well, assuming he can cut down on the amount of times he's caught stealing (which will come with experience and coaching).

PROJECTION:

I personally see Maier as a possible starter, but most likely a really solid fourth outfielder for the Royals. The perfect situation would see the KC outfield in 2008 looking something like this: DeJesus, Mark Teahen, and Billy Butler....with Maier backing up all three and probably getting a lot of playing time, since Butler will could end up as a DH often. Maier should be a solid big leaguer, putting up good numbers in 300+ AB's as a part-time player.

Maier will most likely start 2007 in Omaha, but will probably make his way back up to KC at some point this year (maybe sooner rather than later, should Dayton Moore make a move with Reggie Sanders or Emil Brown).

Stay tuned for Prospect #9..........

Bo Jackson - HOF potential?

Haven’t posted lately, I guess January is a slow time for baseball news. Anyway, here’s a little something from the past….

This discussion came up at Royalscorner.com – a Royals message board located at Scout.com. What if Bo Jackson never played football? What if he’d never been injured? Would Bo have turned himself into a HOF caliber baseball player? The argument intrigued me and I decided to crunch some numbers, here’s what I came up with……

The initial discussion was “What if Bo never played in the NFL?”…well, there’s no real way to project how much better he’d have been at baseball from the very beginning if that’s all he had concentrated on. So, I decided to look at it this way: “What if Bo had retired from the NFL before he was injured?” I wondered how much better he would’ve become had he decided to hang up the one career and focus on baseball from that point on.

I went to baseball-reference.com and looked up Bo’s career stats, looking mostly at the stats from 1987-1990 (really his only full seasons, all with the Royals, all pre-injury). After analyzing the numbers, here’s what I concluded:

Jackson WAS getting much better at the plate. His OBP increased at a 15.5% rate over those four seasons - from .296 up to .342, and his average went up at about the same rate (15.7%). Both increased at an average rate of almost 4% per season....and he was going into his prime.

Bo was also figuring out how to translate his raw strength into power at the plate. This was reflected in the frequency with which he hit home runs. As you can see, his HR per AB got better each year:

1987 - 1 HR every 18 AB
1988 - 1 every 17.56 AB
1989 - 1 every 16.09 AB
1990 - 1 every 14.46 AB

Over that four year span, he hit homers more often each season, with the biggest jumps coming in his two best seasons – 1989 and 1990. His HR total in 1990 was lower than 1989, but he also had 110 less AB. Had he reached 515 AB (his total in 89), he would've likely hit 36 HR that season...not too shabby, and 4 more than he hit in 1989. Now, I don't know that it would've increased much more than that, but you have to take into consideration the construction of new ballparks, expansion (which weakens pitching), and a juiced ball...and take into consideration that he was heading into his prime seasons– he probably would’ve had at least a couple of 40 HR years.

I believe his average and on base % would've risen at a similar rate to the one I listed above for another three or four seasons (probably through 1994, age 31) and then would've leveled out for a few, then probably started declining again.

In summary - a Hall of Fame career….I don’t know. Maybe, if he could’ve really disciplined himself at the plate, the stats would've increased at an even higher rate....but I'm guessing he would've fallen a little short.

I won't lay out all the math here, but I'm projecting that he would've hit roughly 430-440 HR if he would've quit football and never been hurt, and if he'd have played full seasons (I figured his average would've been around 440 AB per year) thru the year 2000 (age 37).

Also figured he'd have stolen roughly 260 bases over his career.

So...440 HR/260 SB – I’m not so sure those are HOF numbers (especially since he falls short of the magic 500 HR mark). However, it’s harder to project how his stats would've differed if he’d focused solely on baseball and never played a down in the NFL. Had he gone that route, his first few full seasons would likely have been more productive, and his projected numbers would be higher as well…probably enough to boost his career numbers to over 500 HR/300 SB. Had he not had the wear and tear of football on his body, he may have stayed healthier as well, playing more games and logging more at bats. At that rate, he's in.

Regardless, the guy was a world-class, hall of fame athlete. Too bad his career (in both sports) was cut so short. I look forward to any comments you may have…could be fun conversation/debate.