The Royals agreed to a contract with Brian Bannister on Wedensday, avoiding arbitration with a contract just below $1.8 million.
Bannister was a disappointment last season after a great rookie season in 2007, in which he was 12-9 with a 3.87 ERA. In 2008, those numbers took a big dip, as he only went 9-16 and his ERA took a turn for the worse, coming in at 5.76.
After showing a lot of promise (and some will say having a lot of luck), I’m just not sure what to expect from Banny in 2009. I think his 2007 season, which saw him in the running for Rookie of the Year, is probably not going to happen again. Bannister did get lucky that year, having a lot of balls hit right at his defenders. Last year, we saw him pitching to contact once again, but this time, the balls found a lot of holes. Bannister’s numbers obviously took a hit, as did the Royals’ chances of winning when he was on the mound.
I think Bannister is a very smart pitcher, but is lacking when it comes to “stuff.” He doesn’t appear to have that extra something…where he can reach back and rely on raw talent to get a batter out. He relies almost completely on studying tape and trying to outsmart the hitter at every turn of every at bat. This is good and bad. He definitely knows what he wants to do on the mound, and knows the tendencies of the batters he faces – which is very good. However, as I said, he lacks the stuff do what he needs to do in a lot of situations – which is bad. Very bad.
All that said, and believing a repeat of ’07 is out of the question…I also don’t believe he’ll have a repeat of 2008. I think he studies too much and works too hard to get shelled like that again. I’m looking for 2009 to be somewhere in between.
Prediction: Bannister will (if all goes well and he starts all season) probably throw around 175 to 185 innings. Over the course of the year, he’ll probably win about 10 games and will maybe post an ERA around 4.8 or so, with a WHIP of 1.4. Are those great numbers? Not by any means…but if he can do that all year, that’s a pretty solid number four or five guy in the rotation, and if worse comes to worse, maybe he goes to the bullpen and pitches well in shorter outings.
