Prospect Report - Day 8

NUMBER 3: Luke Hochevar - RHP

Luke Hochevar was drafted by the Royals in the first round of the 2006 draft....after he was drafted by the Dodgers in the 2005 draft. Hochevar never signed with LA and was thrown back into the draft pool the following year....lucky for us. Between drafts, Hochevar pitched in the American Association (an independent league) and performed well, prompting the Royals to use the first overall pick on him.

Hochevar has a fastball that's generally in the low 90's, though it does get up around 96 mph on occasion. In addition to a good fastball, Hochevar has three other pitches to go to as well. He has an excellent curve that he throws with great control. He also has a plus change-up and a slider that he turns to from time to time. He has great command of all his pitches and throws them all for strikes.

At this point, he only has a combined 38 innings of pro ball, split between the indy league and Burlington (Low A). In that 38 innings, he's looked phenomenal - striking out 50, walking 13 and giving up only 3 home runs. He was sent to the Arizona Fall League for more work, but was shut down due to shoulder issues (not considered serious).

PROJECTION:

At only 23, he should make his KC debut at some point in 2006. He'll probably start out at AA and work on a few things, then get a call maybe around mid-season. Then again, why rush? The Royals have had a recent history of mishandling pitchers, so let's not blow it with this one, too. However, Hochevar has the talent to become a top of the rotation pitcher...possibly a #1 guy in the rotation. I'm willing to wait another year if that's what Dayton Moore sees fit...but I'd bet we'll see him sooner rather than later.

Prospect Report - Day 7

NUMBER 4: Chris Lubanski - OF

Lubanski was drafted out of high school by the Royals - taken in the first round of the 2003 draft (the 5th overall pick). At 6-3/205 lbs, he's a pretty big, athletic guy - and he's only 21 (turns 22 this March). He's been one of the more highly touted prospects in this organization in recent history. He put up good numbers with last season's stellar Wichita (AA) team - batting .282 with 34 doubles, 11 triples, and 15 homers.

One negative in Lubanski's career has been his tendency to get off to a slow start. On the flip-side, a positive has been his ability to make adjustments throughout the season, as he always hits better as the season progresses. Over the span of his career, he's posted a .978 OPS (on-base percent + slugging percent) after the all-star break....over 200 points higher than before the all-star break.

According to a report from Baseball Prospectus, Lubanski became a better hitter last season, as his walk and strikeout rates both significantly improved. That report claims that Lubanski changed his batting stance, helping him get his bat into the strike zone more quickly. His plate discipline has improved quite a bit, and last season he led the Texas League in walks. Lubanski has great speed and his power should continue to improve.

Something that could use a great deal of improvement is his defense. I haven't read one report on Lubanski that has anything very good to say about his play in the outfield. Everything I've seen and heard indicate that he's bad outfielder - he makes bad reads, runs bad routes and has (at best) an average arm. That being said...the Royals still hope that Lubanski can be their left fielder of the future.

PROJECTION:

Once thought of as a speedster, that strength is now gone from Lubanski's game. He's filled out and lost a little speed, and he's not the best base stealer. He seems to be a solid hitter who keeps getting better (and has room to improve even more).

There seem to be a lot of mixed feelings on Lubanski's future.....worst case scenario - the guy becomes a very solid 4th outfielder who can play either corner and give you solid at bats in a reserve or platoon role. Best case? Well....at best, I'd project him as an average big league left fielder in another year or two. A guy who can hit for a decent average, draw some walks, and hit with some pop (I could see him averaging 35 doubles, 10 triples, and 15 homers).

Prospect Report - Day 6

NUMBER 5: Erik Cordier - RHP

Cordier, who doesn't turn 21 until the end of February, was a second round pick out of Wisconsin in 2004. He's had some injury problems (hopefully not a sign of things to come) - after a knee surgery in 2005, he came back in 2006 and went down again, this time with an elbow injury (eventually leading to Tommy John surgery). Hopefully these injuries were just bad luck, as he has the makings of a solid big league pitcher.

In his limited '06 season, he pitched well, splitting time between the Rookie League and the Burlington Low A club. While pitching for Idaho Falls in Rookie ball, he went 16 innings - giving up only 3 walks and holding opponents to a .186 batting average. He also struck out 19 before moving up to Burlington. After his promotion, he went 37 innings (and lowered his ERA) - giving up 14 walks and striking out 23.

According to Baseball America, Cordier has the best fastball in the system. It consistently hovers around 93-94 mph, and reaches 98 mph at times. Cordier also has a very good changeup, as well as a decent breaking ball (which will hopefully get better with time).

After reading a couple of scouting reports, it seems the problem with his breaking ball is a variation in his release point. While it would be best to throw either a curve or slider - this variation causes his breaking ball to come out as more of a slurve. These reports say that he'll likely lean towards the curve, and if he can't make that work, go to a slider.

PROJECTION:

I think if Cordier can stay healthy, he could come close to matching Luke Hochevar's talent - although he's nowhere near as ready to perform at the Major League level. He's got two plus pitches right now, plus the potential for a third. His fastball can dominate, and probably will at any level, as long as he throws it for strikes. Cordier will miss all of 2007 and should return to action in '08. I'd assume he'll start off '08 in High A, but could quickly move up the ladder if he shows he can stay healthy.

Most likely, the Royals will take their time with Cordier....I could see him coming up to the big leagues at some point in 2009 or 2010.

Prospect Report - Day 5

NUMBER 6: Tyler Lumsden - LHP

One of (if not the first) deals Dayton Moore made was the Mike MacDougal trade, which saw us acquire Lumsden from the White Sox. Moore's made a real effort to stockpile some young arms, and Lumsden is a big part of this movement. A 6-4, 215 lb. lefty, Lumsden is a big guy with (hopefully) a bright future as a starting pitcher.

Lumsden was drafted in the first round by the Sox in 2004 (out of Clemson) and is 23 years old. He looked good in 2006 after missing the '05 season due to an elbow surgery to remove bone chips. He seems to have bounced back with no problems, posting good numbers in AA last season. He went a combined 11-5 between AA Birmingham and Wichita, with a 2.77 ERA and 96 K's in 159 innings.

He's got three good pitches - a low 90's fastball (that can top out around 95-96), a curve and a changeup....he throws all three well and has a good delivery. Lumsden is also pretty athletic, and a good fielder at his position. The downside, according to a couple of reports I've read, is that he has trouble with his mechanics. This leads to him floating the ball up into the strike zone at times, which makes him more hittable. If he can get this kink worked out, he should hold opposing batters to a lower average (they hit .257 against him in '06).

PROJECTION:

Lumsden will likely start this season in Omaha, he may have had a shot at the big leagues with a tremendous Spring Training, but the Royals look to have a crowded rotation now, so he'll likely go to AAA and work on his mechanics. He should be one of the first to be called on in case of injury or a need for pitching help this season. I'd look for Lumsden to get some time in KC this season, and to have a definite shot at the rotation in 2008 and beyond.

Countdown resumes on Monday....

Prospect Report - Day 4

Sorry...this is coming a day late, will also post Day 5 shortly.

Probably a controversial choice, but here it is.......

NUMBER 7: Justin Huber - OF/1B/DH

Huber's been a name associated with this list for a little while now, and he's certainly been surpassed by more recent draft picks/acquisitions, but I've got to believe he's still got the ability to be a solid big league hitter. Huber - who's 25 years old now - is a right-handed batter who's recently been shifted to the outfield (a crowded position within the KC farm system). The acquisition of Ryan Shealy has likely made this transition a permanent one.

Huber has been a very solid hitter during his career, slipping a little in '06....probably somewhat due to the position shift, adjusting defensively, etc. He still hit .278 with an OBP of .358 for AAA Omaha, including 22 doubles and 15 HR in 352 at bats. Not exactly lighting the world on fire, but solid numbers.

He's pretty much been a line drive hitter, able to spray the ball around the field, and should be able to hit 15-20 homers at the ML level. He's not overly athletic, being a former catcher, but not bad...and he's got a strong arm, which is essential to play a good outfield. However, his athleticism is below par for an outfielder, making him raw and below average at that spot. He was a pretty solid defender at 1B, but he won't be playing there any time soon (for this franchise, anyway).

Most people probably wouldn't rank Huber this high on the list (if they ranked him at all), but I'm not ready to forget about him just yet. The main reason I'm ranking him at all is due to his possible trade value, and if the Royals can flip him to another team for a solid prospect at another position, then he's sort of served his purpose at this point of his career. I like the guy, but I think he's just been squeezed out of a job in KC.

PROJECTION:

Due to the presence of Shealy at 1B, plus a surplus of corner outfielders, I don't think Huber will make it through 2007 with this organization. If a deal can be made for him, I think Dayton Moore will pull the trigger and send Huber packing. I could see Huber joining another club as a corner outfielder or first baseman and batting a solid .270 to .290, with 15 homers, 30 doubles, and a decent OBP. He should be a solid player for someone at some point......and hopefully can help the Royals fill a need at another position (via trade).

Prospect Report - Day 3

NUMBER 8: Brent Fisher - LHP

Fisher is a young pitcher (he won't turn 20 until August 2007) with a lot of upside. The 6-2, 190 pound youngster was drafted out of high school in 2005 (round 7) and put up great numbers in Rookie ball last season - pitching 72.1 innings with an ERA of 2.12. Fisher also posted 107 K's vs. only 19 walks, showing very good control.

Fisher has a good fastball, hitting the upper 80's/lower 90's and a curve, both of which he seems to have decent command of. According to scouting reports I've read, he's got good mechanics and a solid frame, so he can hopefully avoid the "fragile pitcher" syndrome. Fisher also has a changeup, but according to what I've read, it isn't much of a weapon at this point....maybe it's something that will develop by the time he hit's the big leagues, as he's likely still at least a three years away.

The room for improvement is very high, as Fisher has yet to play a full season, which he'll do in 2007 (probably with the Low A club). After dominating two years of rookie ball (a combined 176 K's in 122 innings) it'll be interesting to see how he puts it all together in one, longer season. If he dominates at Low A, I don't see any reason the Royals wouldn't go ahead and bump him up to High A this year, with a trip to Wichita possible in 2008. I'm assuming we won't see Fisher in KC until sometime in 2010 (maybe Sept. '09).

PROJECTION:

It's hard to say at this early stage. Fisher definitely appears to have the right stuff....SO FAR. He's got a long way to go and you never can tell with prospects (especially pitchers). Since a true ace is hard to find, I'll guess we're looking at a #3-5 starting pitcher....possibly a reliever. Should be fun to follow this season and beyond - he's definitely one to watch over the next couple of years.

Prospect Report - Day 2

NUMBER 9: Jeff Bianchi - SS/2B

Bianchi is a Right-handed middle infielder, drafted out of high school in the second round of the 2005 draft. He hit over .400 in 2006, but in limited time (12 games!), as he was plagued by injury. This was Bianchi's second injury in as many years (back injury in 2005, shoulder in '06), and he's only had 176 plate appearances in both seasons combined. Not much of a sample size, but the Royals have to like what they've seen in such limited time.

Bianchi looks to be fundamentally solid on the defensive side of the ball...a must at either middle infield position. His approach at the plate also looks good, with a combined batting average of .414 over his two shortened seasons. According to scouting reports, Bianchi has good speed and a nice swing. What all this will translate into on the field is hard to project, and he'll have to play a full season (or at least close to one) to get more of a feel for his skills.

Judging from his stats thus far, it seems that Bianchi can hit...but how well can he sustain that over a full season? Will he be able to make adjustments throughout an entire season? Hopefully 2007 will provide the answers, as he'll likely start off in Low A ball...if he produces (and stays healthy), I don't think it'd be a stretch to see him get promoted to High A, with Wichita on the radar for 2008. KC could be within reach by 2009 if all goes according to plan, with a more probable arrival date of September '09/Spring 2010.

PROJECTION:

I think Bianchi could be a guy who starts in KC at either 2B or SS (probably 2B - see below)....of course, I'd have to see him stay healthy (I'm hoping he's not injury prone) before I give him anything, but I think it's safe to pencil him in. It's hard to project his power and speed in such limited playing time, but I think it's safe to say he'd be an offensively gifted middle infielder with plus speed. We'll also have to wait and see if he's got the patience at the plate to be a top of the order guy - but he seems to have the makings of a leadoff or #2 hitter.

With his recent shoulder issues, his arm strength may be in question, which could see a permanent shift to 2B. If KC can hang on to Mark Grudzielanek for a couple more years, Bianchi could be groomed to take over at 2B at some point in 2009/2010.